Prior-Conditioned Gaussian Discriminants for Generalizable AI-generated Image Detection

Diffusion-based generators have made synthetic images ubiquitous, but detectors often fail under simultaneous shifts in generator, prompt/style, and source-domain. We study AI-generated image detection as a transfer system described by training prior, frozen representation, and decision rule, and ask when classifier head training adds value beyond what is already separable in modern features. As a controlled diagnostic, we fit a prior-conditioned Gaussian discriminant ladder: closed-form heads built from firstand second-order feature statistics under nested covariance assumptions. On Percept-Lens, a unified protocol over 39 public datasets (7.1 million images), the best rung is frequently competitive with, and sometimes exceeds, released detector heads when matched on both prior and encoder. We further quantify strong sensitivity to the training prior, data-efficiency of moment-based heads, and representation dependence of Gaussian shift metrics, motivating (prior, encoder, head)-level reporting and stronger analytical baselines for AIGI transfer.